There is an opinion that smaller provinces are a development and state-capacity necessity. However, no move in that direction can be beneficial without greater fiscal federalism, strong local government institutions and an adequate constitutional machinery of transition.

Pakistan has one of the largest populations in the world. The Punjab alone has nearly 128 million people. Sindh has almost 56 million residents and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa nearly 41 million. Balochistan combines a relatively small population with a vast and difficult geography. By 2050, Pakistan’s population could reach 338-386 million.

The case for smaller provinces rests on administrative distance. Provincial power is concentrated in Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta. Remote regions often compete poorly for political attention, development approvals and institutional investment. Distance also weakens accountability.

More provinces could create governments focused on more coherent regional economies. They could turn secondary cities into centres of infrastructure planning, professional services, higher education, public health and investment promotion. They could also create competition among provincial administrations over project execution, land records, urban management, education, healthcare and own-source revenue.

The opportunity is relevant after the Eighteenth Amendment and the Seventh National Finance Commission Award shifted substantial authority and money to the provinces. Further devolution, however, has been stalled. A 2026 World Bank assessment found that provincial revenues rose from below 4 per cent of GDP to an average of 6.5 per cent during 2010-2024. However, federal expenditure did not shrink correspondingly. More than 80 per cent of provincial expenditure in FY2023 was recurrent. District allocations often followed precedent rather than poverty or service gaps. Also, local government’s share of public spending fell from about 10 per cent in 2005 to below 5 per cent in 2024.

New provinces can help Pakistan attain a balance only if the reform protects elected local governments. Article 140A requires provinces to devolve political, administrative and financial responsibility and authority. That promise needs fixed local-government terms, clearly assigned functions and predictable provincial finance commission transfers.

Local governments cannot replace provincial governments. Regional transport, major hospitals, universities, policing frameworks, irrigation, provincial taxation and inter-district infrastructure require decision making on a level above municipalities and districts. Pakistan needs more accessible provinces and more enabled local governments together.

International evidence counsels ambition with discipline. A 2024 study of India’s 2000 state reorganisations found significantly higher growth in Uttarakhand, but no significant change in several other states. Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, created at the same time, produced sharply different welfare outcomes. Indonesia’s proliferation of local governments produced no improvement in school enrolment and weaker water and sanitation access in new jurisdictions.

The process should begin with an independent National Commission on Federal Restructuring, mandated by parliamentary consensus and supported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Finance Division, Planning Commission, Election Commission and provincial governments. 

Smaller units, therefore, create possibility, not performance. A new province built around patronage, an extravagant capital and permanent federal dependence will add cost without improving governance.

Fiscal design must come before boundaries. Provincial governments today rely heavily on federal transfers. The current NFC formula uses population, poverty and backwardness, revenue effort and inverse population density as allocation criteria. More provinces may require a new formula, transition grants, rules for own-source revenue and agreements covering debt, pensions, employees, assets, natural-resource receipts and the fiscal position of the residual parent province. No map should reach the parliament without a published viability assessment.

The constitutional path is demanding. Article 239 requires a constitutional amendment to pass both Houses by two-thirds of their total membership. An amendment altering a province’s boundaries must also secure two-thirds of the affected Provincial Assembly.

A comprehensive amendment should explicitly provide for new provinces, revise Article 1 and settle representation in the National Assembly, Senate, Council of Common Interests and National Economic Council. It must also address provincial assemblies, High Courts, public-service quotas, water, energy and natural resources.

The process should begin with an independent National Commission on Federal Restructuring, mandated by parliamentary consensus and supported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Finance Division, Planning Commission, Election Commission and provincial governments. It should have a methodology based on population, travel time, fiscal capacity, economic coherence, infrastructure, ecology, identity, public consent, minority protection and the viability of both the proposed and parent provinces.

The commission should publish alternatives, costs and transition plans before parliamentary voting. Existing divisional infrastructure can support interim administrations. Cabinet size and administrative expenditure should be capped and prestige construction should be limited. New provinces should begin with local-government laws, fiscal systems, audit capacity and public performance baselines already in place.

The One Unit experience should sharpen the new reform effort, not close the debate. One Unit erased provinces and concentrated authority. Smaller federating units will distribute authority.

By 2047, Pakistan will be larger, more urban and more economically complex than it is today. Four provincial capitals cannot be the principal gateways through which that future is governed. The map should change because the country has changed and because governability, development and national cohesion now require a federation capable of operating closer to its people.

The writer is a senior executive and policy strategist