ince 2010, rains and floods have occurred unpredictably, in space and time. The monsoon this year has once again demonstrated that although rainfall is essential for water security, the country is becoming more vulnerable to climate change. Rains affect agriculture, rural livelihood and the economy at large. It also maintains river flows, replenishes reservoirs and recharges groundwater. The same water can cause losses when rainfall surpasses ecological and infrastructure thresholds.

Since late June, Pakistan has experienced flash floods, urban inundation and riverine flooding. By end of July, hundreds of homes, roads and public infrastructure had been damaged. Over 100 people had died, according to the NDMA.

Although the 2026 monsoon has not yet reached the disastrous levels of 2010 or 2022, it has demonstrated the increasing frequency of climatic extremes. As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere’s ability to retain moisture increases, resulting in more intense rainfall and longer dry spells in between events.

An estimated 20 million people were impacted by the 2010 floods. Large parts of Sindh and Balochistan were submerged for months during the 2022 floods. Losses estimated by the Pakistan government, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the European Union came around to $30 billion. This year, monsoon rains have not yet reached that level of intensity. Nevertheless, the same structural weaknesses—poor drainage, encroachment into floodplains, increasing urban runoff and irregular irrigation channel maintenance—have been highlighted.

Whether Pakistan has enough institutional resilience to shield its agricultural economy from the combined effects of external shocks and climate change is the central concern here.

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-2026, agriculture employs more than 37 percent of the labour force and accounts for over 23 percent of the country’s GDP. It provides raw materials to important export industries, especially textiles and supports over two-thirds of the rural population. Therefore, any disruption to it has an impact on household welfare and sustainability.

The timing and distribution of monsoon rains are crucial for Kharif crops, including rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize. Pakistan is the world’s fourth-largest exporter of rice, which brings in over $3 billion a year. The crop can withstand rainfall but more than a week of submersion can harm seedlings and spread disease. Cotton is much more vulnerable because waterlogging weakens roots and makes it more susceptible to pests. Any major decline in cotton production has far-reaching economic effects because it is the basis of a textile industry. Maize and sugarcane benefit from moderate rainfall but suffer from lodging during storms. Horticulture—which includes tomatoes, onions, chillies and green vegetables—is particularly vulnerable; even a slight disruption raises urban retail costs. Livestock, is vulnerable due to contaminated water, disease and feed shortages. Smallholders, whose primary assets are a few animals, are especially at risk.

Excessive rainfall increases post-harvest losses and marketing expenses, delaying mechanised operations and damaging rural roads. Transportation, electricity, markets and storage are essential to modern food supply chain. Flood-damaged roads limit the flow of fresh produce and delay the delivery of fertiliser and seeds, increasing the difference between farm-gate and retail costs. Monsoon rains have residual affect (positive/ negative) on the following Rabi crops, wheat in particular.

There is a simultaneous danger to the four pillars of food security identified by the FAO: crop loss limits availability; damaged infrastructure restricts access; higher costs undermine affordability; and recurrent shocks discourage investment. The World Food Programme has observed that food insecurity is correlated with the diminishing purchase power due to wage losses during floods.

The ongoing regional conflicts and energy markets are crucial to agriculture: for fertiliser manufacture, diesel for machinery and electricity for tube wells and cold storage. Transportation costs increase the gap between farm-gate and retail prices; rising energy costs force smallholders to use less fertiliser and postpone activities, which lowers yields. Therefore, floods, gasoline prices, fertiliser costs and supply disruption all interact to cause food inflation.

Increased satellite surveillance and coordination between the PMD, the NDMA and provincial agencies, together with more prompt public advisories, have improved forecasts since 2022. However, prediction by itself is not resilience; warnings are only useful in situations when people can respond to them through financial safety nets, embankments and drainage.

An optimistic scenario will keep rice, maize and sugarcane near expectations. A moderate scenario, now the most likely, entails sporadic heavy rains that result in regional losses—especially to horticulture, fodders and cotton, increased food prices and more government spending on recovery. Long-term flooding combined with ongoing energy price increases due to geopolitical escalation form a high-risk scenario that can reduce output, increase food inflation and import requirements and strain financial resources. The planning tools are meant to assist policymakers in anticipating uncertainty rather than just reacting to it.

Climate-related disasters are now a regular part of Pakistan’s growth scene and cannot be considered unique. Redesigning agricultural systems for changing conditions—moving from disaster management to risk management and from reactive governance to anticipatory planning—is more important than just rebuilding after every storm.

Pakistan has crafted significant policies such as the National Food Security Policy (2018), the National Adaptation Plan (2023), provincial climate policies and strengthened NDMA/ PDMAs disaster mechanisms. However, policy texts by themselves are unable to guarantee resilience because implementation, funding, coordination and oversight are still dispersed among ministries in charge of energy, agriculture, water, disaster management and climate. Unfortunately, the investment in research is negligible.

Extension and outreach are equally important. This means shifting from antiquated, resource-constrained systems to digitally empowered advising networks. GIS can direct land-use planning in flood-prone areas; mobile applications can provide forecasts, pest alerts and market prices directly to farmers; artificial intelligence can identify crop stress from satellite imagery before it is visible to the eye; remote sensing can track flood progression and support compensation. Sensor-based irrigation, variable-rate fertiliser and drone surveillance are examples of precision agriculture that are still beyond the reach of smallholders. In addition to modernised canals, restored drainage, investments in climate-resilient crop breeding and water management are crucial.

Universities have a unique role to play as catalysts for policy formation and innovation. Expertise in data analytics, remote sensing and climate modelling are essential to improve traditional agronomy. The Punjab Higher Education Commission has invested in research clusters (climate, water, energy, food security) to promote collaboration across universities and industries. Deeper collaborations with international organisations like the FAO, the CIMMYT, the IRRI, the ICIMOD and the CGIAR can help hasten the transfer of pertinent technologies.

A unified national strategy for climate-resilient agriculture in nexus with water, energy and disaster management ought to be developed. Increased climate literacy for farmers and officials and a national framework of measurable indicators are needed to monitor resilience.

Climate resilience cannot rely on isolated initiatives or transient interventions; more importantly, there must be ongoing political commitment and institutional stability.

With farmers adjusting to shifting markets and new technologies, institutional preparedness and support is necessary. Given the speed and frequency at which climate change is occurring, adaptation alone is no longer sufficient. In addition to serving as a test of emergency response, the 2026 monsoon should be viewed as an opportunity for strategic contemplation.

The writer is the chairperson of Punjab Higher Education Commission and a former vice chancellor of the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.