zad Jammu and Kashmir is set for the first phase of its 2026 general elections on Monday.

The electoral exercise faces several reservations. Many people point to administrative restrictions that have limited campaigns. The internet access has been restricted for quite some time and there has been political unrest in parts of the state. The Joint Awami Action Committee, which has been outlawed but remains popular, is campaigning for the abolition of the 12 seats reserved for Kashmiri refugee now settle in Pakistan.

AJK Chief Election Commissioner Ghulam Mustafa Mughal announced last week that elections in the region will be held in three phases: Mirpur division will vote on July 27, Muzaffarabad division on August 2, and Poonch division on August 10. The decision has further fueled doubts about the integrity of the elections despite his assurance that the elections will be conducted in a “free, fair and peaceful manner.”

“Conducting transparent and impartial elections is both a major responsibility and a challenge for the Election Commission,” CEC Mughal has said, urging election officials to perform their duties honestly and impartially.

The environment

The campaigns have been marked by political tensions and civil unrest in parts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir that erupted a few weeks ago. In June, clashes between security forces and supporters of the JAAC, formally a protest movement advocating governance reforms, resulted in several deaths and injuries to many, including law enforcement personnel. The JAAC leaders are insisting that its demands be met ahead of the polls.

The political parties contesting the polls have urged the Election Commission to restore internet services to facilitate smooth campaigns. Pakistan People’s Party’s AJK president, Chaudhry Muhammad Yaseen, recently wrote to the Election Commission, seeking immediate restoration of internet services across the region. He warned that the ongoing disruption is adversely affecting the election campaigns and could undermine the transparency of the electoral process.

“The suspension of internet services is causing serious obstacles for political parties, candidates and voters,” he wrote, adding, “uninterrupted internet access is essential to ensure that voters receive timely and accurate information about the electoral process and campaign activities.”

The unrest has raised concerns about the political environment ahead of the elections and the participation of various political and civil society groups. Following the 2021 general elections, which resulted in a Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf government, the AJK Assembly has seen several changes in leadership. There have been four prime ministers since 2021, two from the PTI and two from the PPP. After the PTI government in Islamabad was toppled through a vote of no-confidence in March 2022, its Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi was replaced first by PTI’s Sardar Tanveer Ilyas Khan and then Chaudhry Anwar-ul-Haq of the PTI Forward Bloc. PPP’s Faisal Mumtaz Rathore later became the 16th AJK prime minister.

Candidates and campaigns

As many as 1,265 candidates have submitted nomination papers for a total of 45 AJK constituencies, including 12 refugee constituencies. The seats reserved for the refugees have become a key dispute in the continuing JAAC agitation and unrest. 1,047 candidates have filed nomination papers for 33 constituencies in the territorial Azad Jammu and Kashmir and 218 candidates for the 12 refugee seats.

The Election Commission has set up 6,983 polling stations and 10,913 polling booths. There are 3.8 million eligible voters, of which 3.36 million are in AJK and the rest are spread across Pakistan.

As many as 1,265 candidates have submitted nomination papers for a total of 45 constituencies, including 12 refugee constituencies that are a key dispute behind the recent unrest. 1,047 candidates have filed nomination papers for 33 constituencies in territorial Azad Jammu and Kashmir. 218 candidates are contesting the 12 refugee seats.

A total of 22 political parties are participating in the elections. Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, which won the 2021 polls, has boycotted the election, alleging partiality and lack of transparency. It has also expressed solidarity with the JAAC agitation. The major contenders include the PPP, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Isthkam-i-Pakistan Party and the Muslim Conference. The PPP started its campaign first. The PML-N kicked off its campaign last week.

Addressing a large rally, PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, described the upcoming polls as “perhaps the most significant” in the region’s history. He said the region’s future was tied to the outcome.

The PPP leader said, “For three generations now, we have been trying to get the people of Jammu and Kashmir their right to self-government. We have to take this struggle forward for self-government within Pakistan,” he stated. He said the PPP was the only party that sought justice for the 12 refugee seats. “Whenever there is rigging on those 12 seats and some people claim that they carry those seats in their pockets, we protest the injustice.”

He said that if the people of AJK gave the PPP a two-thirds majority in the upcoming election, the party would amend the AJK Constitution to ensure justice for both the AJK residents and the refugees. He said that he had proposed the formation of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to resolve historical injustices.

PML-N supreme leader Nawaz Sharif last week formally launched his party’s election campaign, promising development and modern infrastructure. However, he made no commitment regarding the refugee seats. Some opposition parties and candidates have alleged that the Punjab government headed by Maryam Nawaz Sharif will try to influence the outcome of elections on the seats reserved for refugees now residing in the province. Some PML-N leaders have accused the PPP of ‘playing to the gallery in AJK’ and trying to attract the voters favouring the JAAC and the boycotting PTI.

Six of the 12 refugee seats are reserved for Jammu division refugees and six for Kashmir Valley refugees who migrated post-1947 and in 1965 and live across various cities in Pakistan.

Election authorities claim utmost neutrality and transparency. However, many political leaders in Muzaffarabad and other parts of AJK say the environment is not conducive to credible elections.

“We have seen previous campaigns in Muzaffarabad and other parts of the region. This time the campaign lacks excitement, inclusivity and thrill,” says Arif Ali, a resident of Muzaffarabad. “Elections can go ahead, but people will likely continue to questions their credibility.”

The AJK is holding hold phased polls for the first time in its history, says Muhammad Sajjad. “The unrest has forced the authorities to launch a massive crackdown,” he says. He says most people expect a low turnout.

Former AJK prime minister Sardar Muhammad Yaqub Khan has called for elections in the region to be held on the same day and at the same time to avoid controversy. “It is better to hold polling for all AJK seats simultaneously… All political parties are of the view that the people of the state should get the right to express their opinion at the same time. That will restore confidence in the electoral process and leave no room for objections.”

The author is a staff reporter. He can be reached at [email protected].