ne day, President Trump congratulates the world on the end of war, soon after he announces that the ‘ceasefires’ is over. May be people need to learn to live in a no-permanent-peace world.

On June 17, people in Pakistan, and across the world, celebrated the signing of a 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The framework aimed at halting ‘ongoing military hostilities.’ Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif wrote on X, “as a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly re-open the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade.” Clause 6 of the MoU provides that “the mechanism of the implementation of this plan will be finalised as part of a final deal within 60 days.”

Less than a month later, the US and Iran have exchanged military strikes.

On June 16, US had carried out airstrikes on Iran. “US forces struck Iranian command centres, air defence sites, missile and drone capabilities and coastal surveillance facilities to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten innocent mariners crewing commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM used precision munitions to hit targets in multiple locations including Bandar Abbas.,” US Central Command had said in a post on social media. Earlier that day, US forces had launched a 90-minute round of attacks on Greater Tunb Island.

During the previous week, President Trump has said several times that he is willing to expand US military action against Iran, targeting not just military facilities – storage depots, missile launch sites and Iranian navy vessels – but also civilian facilities such as power plants, bridges and civil infrastructure. He also said he was committed to making the Iranians agree to a deal that would ensure not just US national security but global security as well.

The News on Sunday spoke to Dr Naeem Ahmed, the University of Karachi Department of International Relations chairperson, on what lies ahead for the region and the world at large.

“The Islamabad MOU is still valid. It provides a broad framework to resolve the conflict,” Dr Ahmed says, pointing out that the “technical talks are still going on.” He stresses the history of mistrust on both sides. “We cannot expect the conflict to resolve in a day or two, or in a week or two. It may take months, even years, to resolve the conflict.”

Speaking of the MoU, he says that “it’s a comprehensive sort of a plan that provides both parties with a framework for peace, with no other alternative.” Beyond the mistrust, Dr Ahmed says that both the US and Iran are pursuing their own interests.

On the ongoing round of strikes, Badr Al-Boussaidi, Oman’s foreign minister, has stated: “This war has allowed the myth of containment in the Gulf to be buried.” TNS asked Dr Ahmed if the current exchange is a prelude to a broader regional war.

He said, “It will likely not be a full-scale regional war, although that is possible, because now Houthis are also involved in the war and some Gulf Arab countries are responding to the Iranian attacks.”

Dr Ahmed says he thinks the chances of a full-blown regional war are slim. “No country in the region or beyond that can afford it. It will affect the whole world – economically and militarily.” He says, “the international and regional actors will try to de-escalate the situation.”

“The Islamabad MOU is still valid. It provides a broad framework to resolve the conflict. Technical talks are still going on. We cannot expect the conflict to resolve in a day or two; or in a week or two. It may take months, even years, to resolve the conflict,” says Dr Naeem Ahmed.

Dr Ahmed says that even if the current war ends, the underlying conflicts in the region will remain. That could someday become the cause of another war.

Some experts believe that the US is seeking to raise the military and political pressure until Iran agrees to make more concessions. Others believe that Iran is trying to demonstrate that it cannot be coerced. “Both Iran and the United States have their maximalist positions. Meanwhile, both governments are answerable to their people, states Dr Ahmed. The US, a superpower, “has to show and pretend that it is winning the war”, he says.

Dr Ahmed says “Iran has a civilisational history of thousands of years. The current regime owns it. It’s an ideological state. It cannot allow the collapse of its ideology or the regime. So, Iran, too, needs to claim victory.”

Dr Ahmed says going by the theory the ‘weaker state’ will blink first in a standoff. “In my opinion, both Iran and the US have their strengths as well as weaknesses. There are vulnerabilities on both sides.” In the case of the US, Dr Ahmed says “one vulnerability is being a democratic state. Public opinion counts for much. The government has to answer to the people. We could someday see a division in the Congress. The public opinion is already divided. Mid-term elections are drawing near. They are in November this year. President Trump wants to be able to declare victory. Also, there is a division in the Western allies. The European countries are reluctant to support US in this war.”

As for Iran, the naval blockade has weakened its economy. “Although the war has united the people, there is much resentment in the society… Another vulnerability is the possibility of elimination of its leadership - military and political.”

Dr Ahmed says the balance of power within the Iranian system has shifted. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appears to be more powerful now. It has undermined many decisions of the political leadership. I would say there is indecisiveness in the Iranian camp. That is a vulnerability President Trump is trying to exploit. He appears to believe that there is no clear centre in Iran.”

Dr Ahmed also argues that Iran’s current military strategy could ultimately work against it. “Iran believes that targeting American bases in the Gulf Arab states demonstrates its strength and increases the vulnerability of the United States and its allies. But over days and weeks, that could become Iran’s weakness.”

He says continuation of these attacks could fundamentally alter the position of Gulf Arab states. “These countries previously refrained from responding directly to Iranian attacks. They might eventually react much more aggressively. As a result, they could move even closer to Washington.”

That, he says, could leave Iran increasingly isolated. “Before the current escalation, there appeared to be some momentum towards improved relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. If Iran attacks Saudi Arabia or its Gulf allies, that progress will be undermined.”

Dr Ahmed believes the regional security equation is shifting in Washington’s favour. “Ultimately, Saudi Arabia will look to the United States for its security. I think the situation is moving in that direction. Iran’s vulnerabilities will continue to grow in the coming days and weeks.”

The writer is a journalist and communications professional currently serving as manager at the Centre for Excellence in Journalism, IBA Karachi. She can be reached on X:@mariaamkahn