very morning across Pakistan, millions of children set out for school carrying little more than a backpack and hopes of their families. Millions of others never make that journey. Some lack a nearby school, others cannot afford an education and many girls remain excluded by social and economic barriers. Behind each child left behind lies a larger national challenge. As Pakistan’s population is projected to grow from 241.5 million in 2023 to nearly 390 million by 2050, the demand for education will intensify. At the same time, the National Nutrition Survey 2018 found that four in ten children under five are stunted, limiting their ability to learn and thrive. Pakistan’s demographic future will depend not only on getting more children into classrooms but also on ensuring they are healthy enough to learn and benefit from those.

The double helix of population and education is about their intertwined, symbiotic relationship. Like the strands of a DNA, population trends dictate the demand for educational resources while educational attainment profoundly reshapes demographic realities like fertility, mortality and economic mobility. Education drives population shifts. Investment in girls and female education and skills is critical for higher workforce participation that we need desperately to raise low women participation in the formal labour force (24 percent) and decrease in infant mortality.

Pakistan’s rapidly growing population is placing unprecedented pressure on its education system. With around millions of out-of-school children already, the challenge is immense.

Pakistan’s population is expected to increase by more than 100 million people by 2050. This means millions more children will need schools, teachers and learning opportunities. The real question then is not whether the demand will grow but whether the system will be ready.

Population growth and education are not separate challenges. They are deeply interconnected. A rising population increases pressure on classrooms, teachers, infrastructure and public financing. Without forward-looking planning, existing gaps in access and quality will widen further.

Recognising this, the government has begun to place population dynamics at the centre of national development planning. The issue has been declared to be a “national emergency.”

The government is also working to align population projections with long-term frameworks such as Vision 2035, the Sustainable Development Goals, and future development plans. Proposals to reform the National Finance Commission Award—by introducing incentives for provinces that manage population growth—signal a shift toward integrating demographic realities into policy and resource allocation.

Planning alone will not be enough.

The effectiveness of this response will ultimately depend on one critical factor: the strength of Pakistan’s education system and its investment choices for outcomes-based financing that is people-centred.

At present, the system is struggling not only with access but with learning above all, which makes the former unsustainable and unproductive. According to ASER Pakistan 2025, only 59 percent of children aged 3-5 years are enrolled in early childhood education. Among children aged 5 to 16, just 48 percent can perform a basic Grade 2 division problem and more than half cannot read a simple Grade 2 level story. These figures highlight a learning crisis that cannot be ignored.

As the population grows, expanding enrollment without improving learning will not deliver results. Education must equip children with foundational skills that enable them to progress, continue to learn and contribute productively to society.

This is where education becomes central to Pakistan’s demographic future. A well-functioning education system encompassing strong foundational learning does more than respond to population growth—it helps shape it. Evidence consistently shows that education, particularly for girls, is one of the most effective pathways to improved health, economic participation and more balanced population trends. When children—especially girls—stay in school and learn, the long-term benefits extend across generations.

At the same time, the quality of schooling for learning must be addressed. A growing student population will require not only more schools but also better ones. Teacher training, curriculum reform and basic facilities remain critical gaps. Many schools still lack essential services such as safe drinking water and sanitation—conditions that directly affect attendance and learning.

Pakistan’s demographic trajectory presents both a challenge and an opportunity. A large and growing youth population can become a powerful driver of economic growth, only if it is educated, skilled and productive. Without this investment, the same population could deepen inequality, unemployment and social strain.

The path forward is clear. Education must be treated not only as a social sector priority but as a central pillar of economic and population policy. This requires sustained investment, better planning and a clear focus on learning outcomes.

In the end, Pakistan’s population story will not be defined by numbers alone. It will be defined by what the country chooses to invest in its children today. Classrooms with learning —not projections—will determine whether this generation becomes a demographic dividend or a missed opportunity. It is this double helix that must be owned and acted upon for Pakistan to celebrate its 100 years in 2047.

Baela Raza Jamil, the Idara-i-Taleem-o-Agahi CEO, can be reached at [email protected].

Waqas Imran, the data analytics and advocacy lead at the ITA, can be reached at [email protected].