ISLAMABAD: Given the likely numerical scenario in the Senate following the polls to half of the Upper House in March, it will be a close call for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its allies to get their nominee elected as chairman of the chamber.
The election of the Senate chief is likely to entail a tough and close fight. Victory could be grabbed by either side if just a couple of votes slip away through defections or other offers.
If the PTI and its allies on one side and the opposition parties on the other succeed in bagging the exact number of Senate seats according to their respective numerical strengths in the electoral college (national and provincial assemblies), neither side will be in a comfortable position to easily get their respective candidates elected as the chairman.
As per conservative calculations, the opposition parties might have an edge on paper of one vote over the ruling alliance in the 100-member Senate. However, these predicted gains could be upset if any members of the electoral college switched sides in a secret vote. Such desertions will not be possible in an open ballot because the names of voters will be printed on the ballot papers in this mode of elections. A final decision on the method of voting is yet to come from the Supreme Court.
As the elections near, the coalition partners have started throwing up the names of their prospective contestants for the office of the chairman.
Incumbent Sadiq Sanjrani, who has skillfully conducted the proceedings relatively smoothly in a hostile house for the last three years, aspires for re-election.
His party, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), is going to put up his name for Senate chairman in the deliberations to be undertaken by the ruling alliance. Its premise is that the top slot should remain with Balochistan so that the province has representation among the higher constitutional office holders at the federal level.
However, on its part the PTI is keen to have its own party candidate as the Senate chief for the first time and does not want to miss out on this opportunity.
The name of its chief organizer Saifullah Niazi, who is set to get a party ticket to become a Senator, is doing the rounds as a potential contender and hopeful for securing the party’s sponsorship.
The biggest beneficiary of the upcoming elections will be the PTI because of its strong position in the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Sindh assemblies. However, its gains combined with those of its allies do not even produce a simple majority in the Upper House. After the expected fiercely contested election for the Senate chairman, the PTI is anticipated to face different challenges from its junior partners.
They will expect a greater say in the coalition government and more representation in the federal cabinet. Every time the PTI desires to pass legislation of its choice, it will need to persuade its disparate allies for support. Closer liaison and coordination will be required to keep the alliance intact and strong.
Of late, Prime Minister Imran Khan has changed his old style of dealing with his junior partners, which had been a source of annoyance for some of them. Recently, he visited the residence of the Chaudhrys of Gujrat to remove any reservations they might have had. On the eve of the Senate polls, he has held a telephonic conversation with Punjab Assembly Speaker and Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) leader Chaudhry Pervez Elahi.
The PML-Q wants at least one of its nominees elected as Senator from Punjab. Considering the new-found geniality between the two sides, the PML-Q looks set to get the seat with no trouble. Whatever the ultimate outcome, the new polls will boost the numerical strength of the ruling alliance in the Upper House and considerably prune the numbers of the opposition parties, ending their domination. But the opposition parties are not likely to become totally irrelevant and inconsequential in this chamber because they will continue to have significant numbers. Their position will keep the government on its toes.
No side is likely to have a free hand to do what it likes. Mutual cooperation, which has been missing since the PTI came to power, would be direly needed for legislation and other important matters, failing which the Senate will be no different from the present deadlocked National Assembly.
