When the water recedes

Pakistan does not need another reminder of how devastating floods are. The 2022 floods affected more than 33 million people, damaged millions of houses and caused $30 billion in loss and damage. The 2025 monsoon floods affected another 6.9 million people.

This year, by September 2026, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) reported 194 deaths and 548 injuries during the recent monsoon spell.

Nevertheless, the numbers tell only part of the story. A flood does not only destroy houses, roads and crops. It disrupts the daily routine that keeps a house functioning. The water may shut down businesses for days. Workers may have to miss work. Children may miss school. Drinking water may become contaminated. Medical facilities may become inaccessible. Inundation damages household possessions within hours. Households living on month-to-month paychecks may have to bear the additional burden of recovery, which can last long after the flood itself.

Additionally, the economic costs associated with floods are not limited to physical destruction. An assessment of the 2025 floods indicates that more than 3.3 million jobs may have been disrupted in 14 of the most severely hit districts of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The assessment specifically emphasises the need for livelihood recovery along with immediate relief measures and resettlement plans.

We need to overhaul our understanding of flooding. The general perception defines the beginning of a disaster as when water rises and ends when it goes down. The visuals that dominate public attention follow the same sequence. We see roads and buildings submerged, people being rescued, relief camps set up, and emergency operations conducted. Then the water settles, roads are rebuilt, markets function as usual, and attention moves on to other areas.

The water recedes; albeit for many households, this is when the real struggle begins. A damaged house needs repair. Furniture and appliances have to be replaced. Income is lost. Medical expenses have to be borne. Children need to return to school. The debt has to be paid off. A low-income household already living hand to mouth must now absorb an additional financial shock.

Research on the 2022 flooding estimates that the disaster may have pushed the national poverty rate up by 0.3 percentage points, from 4.0 to 4.3. In short, around nine million people will be pushed below the national poverty line. The study also pointed out that households already living in poverty will be pushed further behind.

The reason is simple. Low-income households lack the buffer to cope. Households with savings, secure employment, stronger housing and access to formal financial instruments may be able to absorb the temporary losses. A family living in fragile conditions and with an insecure income source has fewer options. It may have to borrow, sell an asset, compromise already compromised nutritional balance or postpone an essential expenditure simply to repair what is lost.

The question is not limited to income; rather, it highlights households’ recovery capacity. Disaster studies scholarship has consistently shown that household flood resilience is multidimensional. A 2025 study of 210 households in Nowshera found that financial preparedness, access to basic facilities, effective communication, social networks, timely preparation and trust in institutions influence households’ resilience.

The near-annual inundation creates conditions of structural poverty dynamics for the low-income households. A flood destroys assets and disrupts income. Households use remaining resources to recover from these impacts. This may require borrowing through informal channels, selling a productive asset or, much worse, compromising on education or health expenditures. The household is trapped in repeated cycles as the next flooding event hits them from an even weaker position.

The ratio of out-of-school children is at an all-time high. A child missing school due to inundation adds to it. The 2022 floods damaged/destroyed more than 26,000 schools and affected more than 3.5 million students. Subsequently, limited access to healthcare and the spread of diseases from contaminated water-hit families when their incomes were already affected. The World Bank’s 2022 post-disaster assessment warned that prolonged school closures, disease and food shortages may lead to long-term human capital losses.

Therefore, the problem is significantly larger than building a wall or repairing a road. It is about the household’s capability to rebuild its life without becoming more vulnerable in the process.

My fieldwork surveying 138 households along Nullah Lai, Rawalpindi, also sought to understand similar household conditions. Among the samples surveyed, lower-income households experienced significantly higher levels of house damage and income loss due to closer proximity to Nullah Lai. These households also reported deprivation across more SDGs than high-income households. Although the field survey does not represent every household, it illustrates a pattern: the burden of disaster is shaped by socioeconomic conditions that exist long before the water arrives.

Pakistan has begun moving towards a more anticipatory approach, rather than a reactive one. This year, the government announced its first national Anticipatory Action Strategy. The aim is to use forecasts to trigger early action before a disaster occurs. There is a growing understanding that protecting livelihoods and assets before the disaster can reduce humanitarian and economic losses. The shift is essential; however, preparedness before the flood and relief operations are only part of the equation.

Perhaps the question is not how quickly water recedes after flooding, but how effectively the affected population rebuilds their lives.

The writer is a researcher focused on human security and sustainable development.