ANKARA: The Houthi capture of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline is reshaping the balance of power in the Gulf, strengthening Iran’s hand and confronting Saudi Arabia and its neighbours with a difficult choice: absorb mounting costs or seek accommodation with Tehran.
By securing a position overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important shipping arteries, the Iran-aligned group has opened a second pressure point, threatening the Saudi oil exports diverted from the Strait of Hormuz.
The calculation, according to regional officials and analysts, is straightforward: by threatening Red Sea shipping while Iran chokes off Hormuz, Tehran and the Houthis can raise oil prices and fuel inflation while narrowing the region’s prospects of relying on Washington to resolve the crisis.
The strategy, they say, is designed to force a stark choice on Gulf states: put up with growing economic pain from the squeeze on their oil exports and Iranian strikes or engage with Iran to protect trade, energy flows and economic stability.
“The Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb is a game changer,” said Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges. “It changes the balance of power and gives them far greater geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade.”
Riyadh rerouted much of its crude through Red Sea ports since the war effectively closed the Strait on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, but on Friday it closed the pipeline that carried the oil after it came under attack.
Trump’s reported refusal to agree to a Saudi request for the US to strike the Houthis, combined with mounting economic costs, is reinforcing a view in some Gulf capitals that negotiations with Tehran are no longer a choice but a necessity for self-preservation, regional sources told Reuters.
That shift may become visible as soon as Monday (today), when Gulf foreign ministers meet their Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Oman as part of an Omani-Iran-backed effort to secure a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through Hormuz.
A Gulf source said Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan will attend and Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq are also expected to participate in talks aimed at agreeing a temporary mechanism for Hormuz and maybe also longer-term arrangements.
“It is a meeting to discuss the various proposals on the table,” the source said on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
