LAHORE: Pakistan’s climate has undergone significant and uneven changes over the past four-and-a-half decades, with rising temperatures, increasingly erratic rainfall and more frequent climate extremes emerging as major trends, according to a new scientific assessment by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
The report, titled “How the Climate of Pakistan has Changed: Evidence from 45-year Data Record”, examines climate data from 1981 to 2025 and analyses temperature, precipitation, fog and a range of extreme climate indicators across Pakistan. The report was led by Dr Faisal Saeed Syed, chief meteorologist, PMD. He was a climate scientist and meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in operational meteorology, atmospheric science and climate research.
The assessment finds that Pakistan is warming, with nighttime temperatures rising faster than daytime temperatures. Between 1981 and 2025, the country’s maximum temperature increased by an average of 0.20°C per decade, minimum temperature by 0.26°C per decade and mean temperature by 0.21°C per decade.
Annual precipitation, meanwhile, showed a modest decline of 7.40 millimetres per decade, although the report says the decrease was not statistically significant because rainfall varies considerably from year to year. The warming trend is particularly pronounced during late winter and spring. Maximum temperatures increased by as much as 1°C per decade between February and April across northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab and parts of Balochistan and Sindh. Comparing the periods 1981-2000 and 2001-2020, the report found warming of between 1.5°C and 2.5°C from February through May across several parts of the country. Nighttime warming has been even more significant. Minimum temperatures increased by as much as 0.5°C per decade from February to November in southern and central areas, including Sindh, southern Punjab and Balochistan.
The comparison of the two 20-year periods showed nighttime warming of 1°C to 2°C during spring, particularly across southern and central Punjab, upper Sindh and Balochistan. The changes have not been uniform across the country. While many areas are warming, parts of northern and central Pakistan have experienced periods of cooling. The report records maximum-temperature declines of up to 0.6°C per decade during summer and winter in some areas, with composite cooling of up to 2°C in parts of northern and central Pakistan.
The study attributes some summer cooling to increased cloud cover associated with greater monsoon precipitation. Rainfall patterns have also changed in markedly different ways from region to region. Punjab and Sindh have experienced increases in monsoon rainfall of more than 10 millimetres per decade in some areas, while parts of southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Balochistan recorded composite increases exceeding 40 millimetres. In contrast, northern areas including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan have experienced declining precipitation during spring, late summer and early winter, with composite reductions exceeding 70 millimetres in some locations.
The report therefore characterises Pakistan’s rainfall as becoming less dependable rather than simply becoming uniformly drier. The contrast between extreme dry and wet periods illustrates the country’s growing hydro-climatic volatility. The winter of 2024-25 recorded a national rainfall deficit of 67 per cent, including a 90 per cent deficit in Sindh and 69 per cent in Punjab. Just three years earlier, the 2022 monsoon produced rainfall as much as 450 per cent above average in southern areas, submerging one-third of the country and affecting 33 million people.
Temperature extremes are also becoming increasingly important. Southern parts of Punjab, Sindh and western Balochistan recorded more than 100 days per year above 40°C in some areas, with increasing trends of up to five additional hot days per decade.
The frequency of extreme heatwave events has also increased, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Nighttime heat is emerging as another major concern. Central and southern Punjab and upper Sindh recorded the strongest increases in nights with minimum temperatures above 30°C, with trends exceeding six additional warm nights per decade in some areas. Central Punjab and eastern Balochistan experienced more than 30 such nights annually in parts of the country, while upper Sindh recorded between 20 and 30.
The increase in heat is also reflected in growing demand for cooling. Balochistan, southern Sindh, northern and central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of southern Punjab showed increasing trends in cooling degree days exceeding 100 degree-days per decade in some areas, indicating greater cooling requirements. The report also highlights significant changes in extreme rainfall. Southern Sindh recorded precipitation intensity exceeding 20 millimetres per day, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Jammu and Kashmir recorded some of the highest five-day cumulative rainfall totals, exceeding 200 millimetres. Heavy rainfall events of at least 150 millimetres in a single day occurred most frequently in AJK, Sindh and northeastern Punjab.
These changes carry serious consequences for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure and public health. In Sindh, increasing hot days and warm nights have placed pressure on agriculture, fisheries and mangrove ecosystems, while greater groundwater extraction is contributing to aquifer depletion. In the northern highlands, changes in temperature patterns can accelerate snow and glacier melt, potentially shifting runoff towards earlier parts of the year and affecting water availability for irrigation and hydropower later in the season.
