August 2047 will mark 100 years of the emergence of Pakistan as a new state. What will be the shape of Pakistan 100 years of its formation? Is there a hope that after 21 years Pakistan will emerge as an ‘Asian tiger” or it would remain fragile politically, economically and in the realm of governance and rule of law?
In a World Bank group report of 2019 entitled, “Pakistan at 100: shaping the future 2047” it is argued, “Pakistan has several difficult decisions to make. Despite a challenging start and a complex political history, Pakistan's economy grew fast in its earlier years, improving the lives of its citizens. Pakistan was considered an example of successful development in its first 30 years. This has since changed, and Pakistan is struggling to keep pace with the growth and transformation of its peers. Improvements in development outcomes have become slow and uneven. Pakistan@100 seeks to identify the main changes that will be necessary if Pakistan is to become a strong upper middle-income country by the time it turns 100 years old in 2047. The decisions over the next decade will determine Pakistan's future. Will Pakistan rise to the challenges ahead and transform its economy? Or will Pakistan continue with the mixed record of reform implementation, failing to address the key constraints to growth, while another generation of Pakistanis sees limited welfare improvements?”
In 1972, the population of present-day Pakistan was 70 million whereas in 2026 it has reached around 250 million. Demographic complexion of Pakistan is a major challenge which this country will face in 2047 as the population will surge to 370 million making it the world’s third largest country in terms of demography after India and China! The lack of planning and foresight by those who wield power to control population and enhance resources will certainly be a major challenge for Pakistan when it will be 100 years old.
Given the past and present realities engulfing Pakistan it seems unless there is a paradigm shift in terms of leadership which is dynamic, hard-working, honest, intelligent and visionary, the country will further plunge in economic crisis, political instability, erosion of merit, rule of law and governance. Taking the example from various countries which emerged as a nation state alongside Pakistan, like India, China, South Korea, Asean and Gulf countries, one can argue that there is a downhill slide in terms of per capita income, GDP, economic growth rate, foreign exchange reserves and literacy ratio. Human Security and Perception Corruption Index prove how vulnerable Pakistan is in this regard.
Is there any hope that in 2047 Pakistan will overcome its contentious issues related to economy, governance, democracy and rule of law? In view of prevailing situation which reflects the failure of leadership to pull Pakistan from the web of crises, there is no cogent hope that the country will emerge as a role model in terms of social and human development in 2047. It is anger, antagonism and frustration among the youths of Pakistan which will put a question mark about the state of the country in 2047. Along with erosion of confidence and trust among the youth population which constitute more than 60% of the country’s demography, there are issues related to severe unrest in Balochistan, violence and terrorism in parts of KPK, unrest in Azad Kashmir, Gilgit & Baltistan and Sindh which diminish hope for a better Pakistan in 2047. There is also marginal hope that Pakistan at 100 will emerge as an economically vibrant state and politically stable because those who are at the helm of affairs neither possess political will nor determination or skills to transform their country for the better.
If there is a question mark about the fragility of hope for a better Pakistan in 2047 the realities are also dismal. Unless there is a miracle in terms of emergence of leadership which has a capability, skills, integrity and vision to effectively deal with issues which further deepen Pakistan economic malaise, political instability, bad governance, corruption and nepotism one cannot be hopeful for a better Pakistan in 2047 because there are only 21 years left for the country to complete 100 years of its independence. The neighbourhood of Pakistan is also fraught with challenges because there is no plausible hope for bettering relations with India and Afghanistan.
How Pakistan can deal with its economic and political challenges by the year 2047 would require a three-pronged strategy. First, taking the control of Pakistan by a leadership which focuses on good governance, rule of law, upholding of merit, strengthening of economy, ensuring political pluralism, eradicating corruption and nepotism.
Second, unless the youth of Pakistan is given a better sense of direction and hope in terms of providing good quality education, employment opportunities and the upholding of merit, the country’s more than 50% population will be in wilderness with the augmentation of frustration resulting into massive brain drain.
Finally, despite hard realities, one needs to be optimistic about Pakistan emerging as a vibrant state economically, politically, good governance and the rule of law.
A country with around 250 million people facing severe environmental and human security issues cannot afford to remain economically and politically fragile. Not much time is left for Pakistan to deal with its contentious issues because all indicators are not hopeful for the country to pull itself from aforementioned crises
—The writer is Meritorious Professor of International Relations and former Deal Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi. He can be reached at: [email protected]).
