The elections in Azad Jammu and Kashmir may have been held in phases because of law and security concerns, but the real test begins now. The PML-N has emerged as the largest party and is poised to form the next government in the 53-seat AJK Legislative Assembly. But it would be a mistake for the incoming government to view its electoral victory as the end of the political crisis in the region. The controversies surrounding these elections, and the violence and protests that preceded them, have left behind a difficult challenge: restoring public confidence in the political process. In the first phase, held in the Mirpur division, the PML-N won nine of 13 seats, while the PPP took four. In the second phase, the PML-N won 15 seats and the PPP six, giving the PML-N a commanding position ahead of the final results. The PPP, which currently runs the AJK government, is set to become the outgoing government. But the polls have been accompanied by serious allegations of rigging, with both the PML-N and PPP accusing each other of electoral malpractice. The PPP has particularly blamed the AJK Election Commission for failing to prevent or properly address irregularities.
Whatever the truth of individual allegations, the Election Commission must deal with them transparently and without delay. In a region already experiencing political turmoil, every unresolved allegation becomes another source of mistrust. The circumstances surrounding the elections make this especially important. A number of people were killed during protests led by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), while at least seven police and paramilitary personnel were also martyred. These protests reflected deep grievances in AJK, including over the controversial 12 seats reserved for refugees from Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The elections were therefore conducted against an unusually charged political backdrop. This is why the commitment by senior PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah to make talks with the proscribed JAAC a priority for the new government is welcome. The new government should follow through on this commitment. The history and strategic importance of AJK make reconciliation particularly urgent. India will inevitably seek to exploit divisions and instability in the region, especially because of the failures of its own policies in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan has consistently supported the rights of Kashmiris while India has tried to create divisions among Kashmiris but has not succeeded in fomenting them. Pakistan should not, through its own political handling of AJK, provide opportunities for such efforts.
The controversy over the 12 refugee seats also needs a serious political response. The issue is not one that cannot be addressed according to the wishes of the people of Kashmir. Some reports have suggested that a proportionality formula has already been floated as a possible alternative. Any such change would require a constitutional amendment and therefore cannot be undertaken casually. But constitutional difficulty should not become an excuse for avoiding a question that has become central to public discontent. Ultimately, however, the new government’s biggest responsibility will be governance. The people of AJK deserve functioning institutions, economic relief, better public services and delivery rather than another cycle of political confrontation. They also want less political interference from the federal government in Islamabad. That demand deserves to be taken seriously. The PML-N may be entering government with a strong electoral position, but its credibility will depend on how it treats those who did not vote for it, how it responds to electoral grievances and whether it can bring an agitated region back towards political normality. The Election Commission must resolve outstanding election disputes. The new government must open meaningful talks with protesters. The question of the refugee seats must be addressed through a constitutional and politically credible process. And the federal government must resist the temptation to treat AJK simply as another arena for national political management. In a region as sensitive as Kashmir, this is the bare minimum.
