The COP31 annual climate change conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9-20 this year. The conference will discuss important areas to gauge progress towards climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Nations submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 2025. COP31 will assess the practicality of the new NDCs and their alignment with the target of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 C. To limit temperature rise below 1.5 C, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by approximately 43 per cent by 2030. Nations will examine the targets, levels of ambition and strategies proposed by states. They will also identify gaps between previous NDCs and actual progress made until the submission of new NDCs. This will help determine actions taken globally to fulfil commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Another important area of discussion will be the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a financial framework established at COP29 to accelerate efforts to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, two important financial decisions were taken: a call to scale up financing for developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 from all sources, and a goal to mobilise at least $300 billion per year by 2035, led by developed-country Parties.
The UNFCCC Finance Committee is developing transparency mechanisms, including tracking, disbursement and data collection systems. Discussions will revolve around loans versus grants, governance and mobilisation. However, it is too early to measure the success of the NCQG. The Green Climate Fund and Loss and Damage Fund were established in the past, but the Green Climate Fund never achieved its target of collecting $100 billion annually.
The third important area of negotiation will be energy transition and real-world implementation. The COP31 Presidency has made important announcements in this regard. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the ‘electrification target’ is to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20 per cent today to 35 per cent by 2035. It was also announced that global waste growth would be halved by 2035, along with a resilient cities target of reducing energy consumption intensity in the building sector by at least 25 per cent by 2035.
Turkey is also focused on reducing carbon emissions from waste by controlling the amount of waste generated annually. Zero Waste is an initiative of the first lady of Turkey and is aimed at controlling waste production. The upcoming COP will also initiate the debate on how nations can achieve these energy transition targets. Some countries still rely on fossil fuels and have huge electricity consumption, which may lead to some resentment. COP31 aims to intensify efforts to implement existing decisions rather than create new headlines.
The fourth topic of discussion at COP31 will be the needs of vulnerable nations, especially Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It will analyse the specific threats they face from climate-led disasters and identify their technical and financial requirements for mitigation and adaptation.
Fifth, the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) requires all countries to provide credible data and reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and track progress towards their NDCs. Parties will discuss capacity building for developing countries and making the ETF universally applicable and robust.
Sixth, carbon markets will be a key topic as countries seek to shape rules for international carbon trading, prevent double counting and maintain proper records of carbon credit transfers to reduce global emissions and limit temperature rise below 1.5 C.
COP31 will focus on expediting implementation of decisions taken at previous conferences, particularly on NDCs, NCQGs, ETF, clean energy transitions, zero-waste targets and robust carbon markets, in line with the Paris Agreement.
The writer is a graduate of theUniversity of Oxford in Public Policy. She tweets/posts @zilehumma_1 and can be reached at: [email protected]
