LONDON: The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor was unveiled at the G20 summit in New Delhi three years ago amid much fanfare. It was announced at a time when Saudi-Israeli normalisation seemed imminent after a three-way handshake between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
IMEC was billed as a rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and an alternative to the maritime chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Yet progress has slowed due to war, the crown prince’s reticence towards Israel and his efforts to promote alternative routes through Egypt. Even a deal between the US and Iran may not revive India’s dream to play in the big leagues if Riyadh is determined to delink regional connectivity from Israel, reports Financial Times.
IMEC was meant to turn Israel into an economic bridge between the Gulf and Europe, shorten transit times by 40 per cent compared with the current all-sea Suez route and enhance the appeal of normalisation deals. India can potentially use alternative routes to reach the European market, but New Delhi has heavily invested in ties with Israel, and will find it difficult to abandon a key defence ally. But a trade, tech and energy route under the US’s umbrella, designed to spread prosperity and peace in the region, was always a gamble.
After all, three years is a long time in a restive region. Israel’s military response to Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023 has made it difficult for Riyadh to pursue normalisation. And Israel’s strikes on Doha, targeting Hamas, stoked fears in Gulf countries that they could be next if Israel is left unchecked. Additionally, a growing rift between Prince Mohammed and the UAE’s leader, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, has pushed the Gulf powers apart. Their split has led to the formation of two competing power blocs: a Saudi-led Israel-sceptic bloc with Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and Pakistan, and the other comprising the UAE, which normalised ties with Israel in 2020. This camp believes commercial benefits can pave the path towards peace.
India’s foreign policy is centred on its rivalry with Pakistan and halting China’s territorial and economic expansion.
Deepening defence ties with Israel at a time when the US was actively seeking to further the Abraham Accords, and as India tried to project itself as a suitable alternative to China-dominated supply chains, made IMEC a perfect fit. But New Delhi did not anticipate widespread war or a rift between Saudis and Emiratis — and it won’t join a bloc that includes Islamabad.
Riyadh, meanwhile, is pursuing alternative routes that bypass Israel. One is the long-discussed “Moses Bridge”, a proposed 32km causeway linking the Red Sea coast with Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Some analysts have referred to it as an alternative to IMEC. Riyadh is also pursuing a fibre-optic cable project through Syria rather than Israel to connect the kingdom with Greece.
Indian officials seem to believe that the EU still wants IMEC to run through Israel. Italy, France, Germany and the European Commission are all foundational partners of the project. “Europe is very, very keen on IMEC,” an Indian diplomat said. An EU official was less enthusiastic but seemed committed, saying: “The full achievement of IMEC requires a number of conditions that are not yet fully present in the region in terms of peace, stability and predictability.”
Any decisive intervention to make IMEC a reality and preserve the Israeli connection will probably have to come from the US. President Donald Trump has called IMEC “one of the greatest trade routes” in history, but given recent spats with the Saudis, the endorsement seems shaky. If the US doesn’t sway the Saudis to come back on board, IMEC risks becoming a patchwork of bilateral digital transport and energy links, not the grand rival to China’s BRI that Modi once imagined.
