ISLAMABAD: Since the formation of PMLN-led coalition government following the February 8, 2024 general elections, one political narrative has repeatedly resurfaced despite failing to materialise that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government has entered its “final months”.
Over the last two-and-a-half years, television talkshows, YouTube channels and political commentators have repeatedly forecast the coalition’s imminent collapse. The predicted timeline has shifted from 90 days to six months and back again, but the conclusion has remained unchanged -- that the government is about to go.
Whenever one deadline quietly expired, another emerged, tied to the IMF review, budget, economic challenge, coalition partners problems, opposition agitation or speculation about the country’s political power structure. The latest countdown has come from a television anchor-turned-YouTuber, who recently claimed that the government has been given six months by the establishment to create new provinces.
Constitutional experts, however, point out that creating new provinces is among the most difficult constitutional exercises in Pakistan. Under the Constitution, any proposal to alter provincial boundaries requires a constitutional amendment passed by a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament as well as the consent of the concerned provincial assembly through a two-thirds majority. Given the existing political arithmetic and the absence of inter-provincial consensus, such an exercise is widely regarded as politically impossible, making the alleged “six-month deadline” difficult to reconcile with constitutional realities.
The latest claim follows a familiar pattern. Soon after the 2024 elections, predictions centred on the argument that the coalition lacked sufficient political legitimacy to survive prolonged inflation, IMF conditionalities and economic hardship. As the government crossed one hurdle after another, fresh timelines replaced those that had quietly lapsed.
When IMF reviews were successfully completed, attention shifted to the next review. When the budget was passed, the next political crisis became the supposed turning point. When opposition protests failed to produce political change, speculation simply moved to another date.
Rather than functioning as a genuine countdown, the six-month deadline evolved into a political calendar that continuously resets itself.
Among the politicians who have repeatedly fuelled speculation has been a senator, who sits on the treasury benches and is considered close to the establishment. He on different occasions predicted major political “earthquakes,” hinted at impending changes within 90 days and suggested that significant developments were imminent. While those forecasts generated extensive debate, the predicted timelines passed without the anticipated political upheaval, only for fresh predictions to follow.
More recently, the Pakistan Peoples Party has also sharpened its criticism of the federal government amid growing tensions with its coalition partner, the PMLN, during the ongoing Azad Jammu and Kashmir election campaign. Although, PPP leaders have stopped short of assigning a specific date for the coalition’s collapse, their increasingly confrontational tone has added the threat of start of “countdown”.
Political observers, however, believe that coalition disagreements and electoral sloganeering do not necessarily translate into the imminent collapse of a federal government, especially where neither side appears prepared to trigger an immediate break in the alliance.
Another recurring feature of the speculation has been the search for a political alternative. Months ago, a senior journalist suggested that a new “wonder boy” was being prepared by the establishment to replace Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The suggestion generated widespread discussion across television and social media, with commentators attempting to identify the mysterious political figure. Months have since passed, but no “wonder boy” has emerged as yet.
Another senior journalist and anchorperson similarly focused on the government’s performance and predicted that Shehbaz regime had been given six months to fix the economy or go home.
Some claimed that the finance minister was being sacked. Almost ten months have passed but neither Shehbaz government has been removed nor the finance minister has been relieved of his job.
Deadlines come and go but the prediction remains the same. The government that was initially said to have only a few months to survive has outlived one forecast after another.
The deadlines and predictions cited in this report are part of the public record, having been made on television, YouTube channels, interviews and other public forums over the past two-and-a-half years. Most names have been omitted because the purpose is not to target individuals but to highlight a recurring trend in Pakistan’s political discourse.
Nor does this report suggest that the Shehbaz Sharif government cannot face political, economic or coalition-related crises. Rather, it raises a simple question: why do predictions of the government’s imminent collapse repeatedly return with fresh deadlines whenever earlier ones fail to materialise?
