LAHORE: The decision by the federal government to import one million tonnes of wheat and Punjab’s early releases to mills has so far done little to calm the domestic market, as supply concerns continue to loom.
The federal government announced its plan to import 1 million tonnes of wheat on July 24, 2026 in response to requests from the provinces. Minister for National Food Security & Research Rana Tanveer Hussain said this initiative is aimed at stabilising wheat and flour prices nationwide. The Punjab Food Directorate started the issuance of wheat to flour mills in the month of July during procurement drive, in an effort to reduce flour price but to no avail.
Nevertheless, wholesale data gathered by provincial authorities from 12 key districts in Punjab indicates that this announcement has not provided any tangible relief to consumers. Instead, prices have consistently risen in various districts.
The official data of wholesale price trend is evident of the trend. On July 27, 2026, wheat prices in 12 major districts of Punjab province ranged from Rs3,643 to Rs3,782 per 40kg. The following day, July 28, the prices increased to Rs 3,663-Rs 3,857 per 40kg. By July 31, the prices further escalated to Rs3,803–Rs3,992 per 40kg.
This represents an increase of Rs 210 per 40kg at the higher end and Rs 160 per 40kg at the lower end within just four days. In percentage terms, the higher price surged by approximately 5.6 per cent, while the lower price rose by about 4.4 per cent during the same timeframe.
In Lahore, the provincial capital, consumers experienced a temporary and little decrease in prices. Following the announcement of imports, wheat prices fell to Rs4,650 per 40kg around August 1, 2026, down from Rs4,750 per 40kg the previous week. This Rs100 drop per 40kg resulted in a Rs50 reduction in price for a 15kg flour bag and a Rs200 decrease for an 80kg fine flour bag.
However, this relief was short-lived, as by August 4, 2026, wheat prices had risen again to Rs4,700 per 40kg. Maida was priced at Rs11,800 for an 80kg bag, while atta was available for Rs2,100 for a 15kg bag.
According to insiders, the turnaround highlights a fundamental market principle: prices are dictated by demand and supply. Although the announcement regarding imports generated hopes for better availability, the arrival times are still uncertain. Market participants observe that one million tonnes fall short of the expectations many traders had, considering the existing shortfall, and the wheat has still not arrived.
The arrival of local wheat in the domestic market has also not shown any significant increase in the wake of the government’s intention of imports. This expected delay in delivery from both external and internal sources has maintained upward pressure on prices.
Against the expectations, the limited availability in local mandis, combined with a lower-than-expected import volume and meager official releases to mills, has driven prices up instead of down. With stocks being tight and demand remaining steady despite a milling cycle on the back of recent releases by the provincial government, buyers are competing for any available wheat. Consequently, the psychological effect of the import announcement diminished within days, allowing the underlying supply constraints to reemerge.
Analysts emphasise that until imported shipments actually arrive and are distributed, the market will continue to operate under tight conditions. The Punjab wholesale trend, which saw a rise of 4-5.6 per cent in just one week, indicates that the volume of imports may not be enough to cover the current deficit, or that delays in procurement and logistics are diminishing its effectiveness.
At this point, the government’s intervention has merely delayed a more significant price increase, but it has not altered the overall trend. With wheat prices approaching Rs4,700 per 40kg in Lahore and wholesale rates nearing Rs4,000 per 40kg, consumers are unlikely to experience lasting relief unless there is a substantial improvement in supply in the coming weeks.Until that happens, the market will continue to be driven by the straightforward equation of demand exceeding supply, and prices will reflect this imbalance.
