Islamabad:The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Tuesday released its seasonal outlook for the 2026 monsoon season, indicating that Gilgit-Baltistan, along with adjoining parts of AJK and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to receive near-normal rainfall.
According to it, the projection is broadly consistent with independent assessments from leading international climate institutions, including the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the 34th Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, all of which point toward near-normal precipitation patterns across parts of the northwestern Hindu Kush Himalayan region.
While the rainfall outlook offers a measure of reassurance for water availability, seasonal temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the HKH region, with relatively larger positive departures likely over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan and surrounding areas. These warmer conditions are projected to accelerate seasonal snow and glacier melt, contributing to enhanced river flows during the monsoon period.
The PMD said near-normal rainfall was anticipated to support sustained water availability and maintain river inflows originating from northern mountain catchments. It, however, warned the combination of enhanced rainfall and accelerated snow and glacier melt under above-normal temperatures could lead to increased river discharges, elevating the risk of localised flooding in vulnerable valleys.
According to it, intense short-duration rainfall events could trigger flash floods, landslides, debris flows and slope failures, particularly in steep mountainous terrain. Above-normal temperatures are also likely to accelerate snow and glacier melt, resulting in higher runoff and heightened risks of localised glacier-related hazards.
The warming trend may further enhance the potential for glacial lake iutburst gloods in vulnerable high-altitude catchments. The department urged communities residing near rivers, streams, steep slopes and glacial valleys to remain vigilant and strictly adhere to advisories issued by relevant authorities throughout the season.
