Pakistan stands at a pivotal moment in its pursuit of energy security. After more than six years of delays, policy uncertainty and missed opportunities, the Brownfield Refineries Upgradation Policy finally appears close to implementation. Whether this proves to be another false dawn or the beginning of a new chapter for Pakistan’s energy sector will depend on the decisions taken over the next few weeks.
Having spent nearly five decades in Pakistan’s energy sector, spanning both oil and power, I have witnessed numerous policies and decisions shaped by inadequate technical understanding, incomplete or inaccurate information, flawed assumptions or, at times, vested interests. Few episodes, however, have been as disappointing as the prolonged delay in implementing the Brownfield Refineries Upgradation Policy.
The cost of these delays has been staggering, yet rarely acknowledged. Pakistan has not merely lost time; it has lost billions of dollars in foreign exchange, forgone investment, employment opportunities, technological advancement and the strategic benefits that a modern refining industry would have delivered. Equally unfortunate is the absence of any meaningful sense of accountability or urgency over these lost opportunities.
The contrast with India could hardly be sharper. Guided by a clear long-term vision, India pursued the modernisation and expansion of its refining sector with consistency and determination, achieving its 25-year objectives well ahead of schedule. Today, it possesses not only one of the world’s largest refining sectors but also one of its most sophisticated. This has enabled it to process discounted crude from suppliers such as Russia and Iran and export high-value petroleum products to markets as demanding as Europe and the US. It is a classic example of how strategic planning, policy continuity and timely execution can transform an entire sector.
Ironically, it often takes a crisis to expose long-neglected weaknesses. The recent US-Iran conflict and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz served as a stark reminder of Pakistan’s vulnerability to external energy shocks. The crisis reinforced the strategic importance of a robust domestic refining sector while also exposing another glaring weakness, the country’s near-nonexistent Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
If there is one positive outcome from that episode, it is the renewed focus on strengthening Pakistan’s energy security. The government’s efforts to revitalise the long-delayed Brownfield Refineries Upgradation Policy, alongside the initiation of a comprehensive consultative process for establishing Strategic Petroleum Reserves, are both timely and strategically sound. Together, these initiatives could significantly enhance Pakistan’s resilience against future geopolitical disruptions and supply chain shocks.
Some mistakenly believe that the same negotiating tactics employed in the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) settlements can be replicated in the refining sector. That would be a serious misreading of the situation. The refining sector presents a fundamentally different policy challenge from the IPPs, requiring a markedly different approach.
The IPP negotiations were driven by an existential challenge. Escalating capacity payments, coupled with stagnant or declining electricity demand, had created an unsustainable burden on the national economy. Extraordinary circumstances demanded extraordinary measures.
The refining sector is altogether different. Here, the challenge is not to extract concessions from investors but to persuade long-established refining companies – many backed by foreign investment – to commit billions of dollars to expand and modernise Pakistan’s refining infrastructure. Investment of this magnitude cannot be secured through coercion or uncertainty. It requires policy consistency, contractual sanctity, regulatory stability and, above all, mutual trust between government and investors.
In this regard, only an open and transparent consultative approach can get us through. Constructive engagement with stakeholders has already helped resolve two of the most critical issues that had stalled progress for nearly two years: the sales tax mechanism and the inclusion of a meaningful stability clause. This collaborative approach inspires far greater confidence than an adversarial one and offers the best prospect of translating policy into actual investment.
Today, Pakistan stands closer than ever to finally launching the Brownfield Refineries Upgradation Policy. Only a handful of contentious issues remain. One can only hope and pray that these are resolved in the coming days, allowing implementation to commence without further delay.
Pakistan has already lost six precious years. We cannot afford to lose another six. At stake is far more than the future of the refining industry; it is Pakistan’s long-term energy security, economic resilience and credibility as an investment destination. The country now has a rare opportunity to modernise its refining sector, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, attract billions of dollars of investment and build the foundations of genuine energy security. Opportunities of this magnitude do not come often. This one must not be squandered.
History will judge us not by the policies we drafted, but by the resolve we showed in implementing them.
The writer is the CEO of Attock Refinery Ltd.
