Recent statements from Tehran and Washington suggest that while the guns may have fallen silent for now, the rhetoric has only intensified, raising fears that the region could once again be pushed towards a conflict with catastrophic consequences. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first public message since the funeral of his father and predecessor, has declared that avenging the martyrdom of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is "the demand of the nation" and "must certainly" take place. Yet the more alarming developments continue to emanate from Washington. US President Donald Trump has once again resorted to inflammatory threats, warning that "1,000 missiles are locked and loaded" against Iran in response to an alleged assassination threat. He has further claimed that additional US military forces stand ready to launch overwhelming retaliation. Such language does little to reassure a region already exhausted by war.
Iran, meanwhile, insists that it has not sought renewed negotiations with Washington. Sources close to its negotiating team have denied reports that Tehran reached out to the US, maintaining that no talks will take place unless Washington first reverses its current positions. According to these sources, any shift in policy would be judged by the implementation of understandings already reached, including the establishment of a Lebanon working group, arrangements governing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with Iran’s position, and the restoration of Iranian oil exports and normal oil flows. Tehran has also warned that it will no longer consider itself bound by the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding if the US continues to violate its commitments under the accord. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has criticised Washington for failing to uphold the interim agreement, while Iran’s lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has reiterated that Tehran will never capitulate to the US and remains fully prepared to defend itself should Washington breach the understanding.
Pakistan has rightly urged all parties to honour their commitments under the Islamabad MoU. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a conversation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, stressed the importance of upholding the commitments undertaken under the agreement, describing it as a lasting foundation for mutual understanding, respect and shared prosperity. Islamabad deserves recognition for the constructive role it played in bringing both sides to the negotiating table. However, mediation alone cannot preserve peace if one side repeatedly undermines the very understandings it helped create. The latest tensions also underline a broader reality. The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, a morally indefensible act intended to trigger regime change, produced precisely the opposite effect. Rather than weakening the Iranian state, it united the country’s people against foreign intervention. Washington appears to have underestimated both Iran’s sense of national identity and its willingness to resist external pressure. The calls for revenge now being echoed by Iran’s new supreme leader are rooted in that public sentiment. The path forward remains clear even if it appears politically difficult. Instead of alternating between military strikes, retreats, threats and renewed brinkmanship, the US must pursue serious, sustained diplomacy. Iran has made it clear that negotiations cannot proceed unless Washington shows that it is willing to honour its commitments. The responsibility, therefore, lies with the US to rebuild the credibility it has squandered. The wider region also has much at stake. Increasingly, there is recognition across the region that lasting stability cannot be built on perpetual confrontation. Iran has expressed willingness to engage constructively with its Gulf neighbours. This should be seized as an opportunity. A broader regional dialogue involving the GCC states, Iran, Pakistan and Turkiye, while also engaging major powers such as China and Russia, could help establish a more balanced regional security architecture that is less vulnerable to external manipulation.
