LAHORE: The country is heading into monsoon season after record pre-monsoon heat and the power sector is already showing signs of strain.
According to Met office, extreme ‘feels like’ temperature in the range of 50°C are being observed from Sargodha to Sukker throughout Central and South regions of the country. With monsoon rainfall already reaching in the central and upper parts, humidity levels have surged, resulting in oppressive, stifling conditions that are expected to drive electricity demand to its annual peak in the upcoming weeks.
The risk to fuel imports through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with elevated primary energy costs due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, threatens to deepen the country’s energy woes for power consumers.
Despite official claims of enhanced grid readiness —including the resolution of capacity charges, the shutdown of outdated plants, and the introduction of cost-effective generation from hydel, Thar coal, nuclear, and renewable sources — consumers are already experiencing unplanned, forced outages in various cities, including Lahore and its neighboring areas.
According to an estimate, during peak demand days in the last several weeks, power suspensions in the range of 3,000 to 5,000MW have been reported. These power cuts are observed under 1) load management plan, 2) planned shutdowns for augmentation, realigning etc power infrastructure, 3) announced power suspensions to so-called high losses areas spanning almost every city of the country, 4) forced unannounced outages due to generation, transmission and distribution constraints, 5) breakdowns and brownouts due to faults. We are not adding adverse effect of suppressed demand in these estimates, said an expert. If all these factors are added, the gap between demand and supply may hover around 7,000MW during any high demand day.
Spokesperson for Ministry of Energy admitted up to 1,100MW power shortfall only.
The pressing question remains: if the grid struggles to handle pre-monsoon demand, how it will cope during the peak of sweltering punitive weather in the monsoon season up to September 15.
In response to detailed queries posed to spokesperson of the Power Division, Ministry of Energy, the official acknowledged a night peak shortfall ranging from 600MW to 1,100MW, managed through load management not exceeding 30 minutes to one hour. This shortfall, the official clarified, is mainly due to limitations in RLNG availability stemming from the current situation in the Middle East, as well as the forced tripping of several major generating units.
Nevertheless, consumers are experiencing a starkly different reality. Daytime forced outages, late-night unannounced cuts in urban areas, and extended outages in rural regions have become commonplace. If the shortfall is truly confined to 600-1,100MW, why outages are persisting for 04 to 08 hours in rural parts of the country. This gap between official statements and actual experiences undermines public confidence and raises significant concerns about the reliability of the power supply and transparency about its working.
Thankfully, solar power has eased chronic daytime loadshedding to great extent, though power managers are adamant on discouraging it. In addition to enabling more secure electricity even for those without solar, distributed rooftop power helps avoid fossil fuel imports, and saved transmission and distribution losses---a least acknowledged fact in the eyes of power establishment.
In response to the query about utilisation of idle generation capacity, the official indicated that the dispatch of available generating units is strictly governed by the merit order, contingent upon fuel and plant availability. This is a standard operational reply. However, with nearly 50 percent of the installed generation capacity sitting idle, consumers justifiably question: why costly plants are still operational while more economical, idle capacity is not being utilised.
Concerning contingency planning, the official mentioned that the system operator is dispatching the maximum available generation to the national grid based on prevailing system conditions. Wherever supply constraints arise due to generation availability or unforeseen outages, the available generation is allocated in coordination with the entities concerned. Any area-wise load management schedules and consumer notifications are issued by the respective Distribution Companies (Discos) in accordance with operational requirements.
The official also pointed out that transformer audits, feeder maintenance, and preparations for the monsoon are responsibilities of distribution companies, not the system operator.
Likewise, issues related to manpower shortages and material availability fall outside the system operator’s jurisdiction. Although this is technically correct, such bureaucratic responses provide little solace to citizens who merely seek dependable electricity.
