LAHORE: Sindh has taken the decisive lead in cotton arrivals at the ginning stage, accounting for 51 per cent of the country’s total, while Punjab’s share has dropped to 46 per cent, marking a further year-on-year (YoY) decline for the once-largest contributor to the overall ginning output.
The cotton arrival data reveals a significant shift in provincial contribution to the national total, underscoring the success of Sindh and Balochistan in mitigating the production decline in Punjab. As of November 30, Sindh contributed 2.61 million bales, achieving a majority share of 50.85 per cent — an increase of over 1.2 percentage points from its 2024 share of 49.61 per cent or 2.575 million bales.
Conversely, Punjab’s contribution fell to 2.349 million bales, accounting for 45.76 per cent of the national total, down from 47.38 per cent or 2.459 million bales in 2024. The decline in output is more pronounced if factoring in cotton area under cultivation in Punjab, which stands twice as of Sindh’s sowing area.
The smaller contribution from Balochistan also saw growth, rising from 155,800 bales with 3.0 per cent share in 2024 to 173,790 bales or 3.39 per cent share in 2025. This rebalancing confirms Sindh’s role as the primary driver of cotton arrivals this season. The data also reassures that the share of Sindh has increased by over 1.2 percentage points, allowing it to surpass the thumping 50 per cent contribution mark, while Punjab’s share contracted proportionally. This rebalancing highlights Sindh’s crucial role in stabilising national cotton production this season.
According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association consolidated statement of cotton arrivals in factories as of November 30, Punjab, the largest cotton-producing province, was primarily responsible for the deficit, witnessing a pronounced decline of 4.49 per cent. Only 2.349 million bales arrived in Punjab’s factories this year, down from 2.459 million bales in the same period last year.
The province’s top arrival districts were Bahawalpur with 0.37 million bales, followed by Rahim Yar Khan with 0.31 million bales, and Dera Ghazi Khan with 0.29 million bales. Conversely, the slowdown was most acute in districts like Muzaffargarh, which contributed only 31,872 bales, Rajanpur with 33,804 bales, and Bahawalnagar with 68,586 bales.
In contrast, Sindh provided a stabilizing force, achieving modest growth with a 1.95 per cent increase in arrivals. The province received 2.610 million bales this season, up from 2.575 million bales last year. The region’s strongest contributor was Sanghar, which alone accounted for 1.23 million bales, followed by Sukkur with 0.33 million bales, and Khairpur with 0.22 million bales. Districts with lower arrivals included Jamshoro with 40,600 bales, Mirpur Khas with 70,100 bales, and Nawabshah with 79,450 bales.
The latest data released by the PCGA indicates a slight contraction in overall cotton arrivals for the current season. As of November 30, a total of 5.133 million bales of cotton were recorded arriving at ginning factories nationwide. This figure reflects a marginal decrease of 1.1 per cent, equating to a shortfall of 57,105 bales compared to the 5.19 million bales received during the corresponding period last year.
The decline in arrivals, particularly the significant drop in Punjab, suggests underlying production challenges, which may be attributed to decline in per acre yield, weather aberrations including floods and incessant rain and pest infestations. However, Sindh’s and Balochistan’s positive growth offers a crucial buffer, preventing a more severe national decline.
Given the absence of the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) intervention in the market amid dwindling lint price and the contraction in supply necessitate adaptive planning from industry stakeholders, especially for growers. These figures also underscore the need for the textile sector to closely monitor the tightening supply-demand gap and strategize procurement from abroad.
