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From independence to deterrence: The evolution of Pakistan's foreign policy

August 14, 2025
Pakistani Rangers take part in the ceremony at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post on the occasion of Pakistans Independence Day and eve of Indias Independence Day on August 14, 2024. — AFP
Pakistani Rangers take part in the ceremony at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post on the occasion of Pakistan's Independence Day and eve of India's Independence Day on August 14, 2024. — AFP

Since independence in 1947, Pakistan's foreign policy has been shaped by pressing security imperatives in a volatile regional environment. India's persistent hostility-rooted in historical Muslim-Hindu differences and the unresolved Kashmir dispute-quickly placed the new state under severe pressure. From the illegal occupation of Kashmir in 1947 to the wars of 1965 and 1971 and the creation of Bangladesh, India's actions have remained a constant challenge. At the same time, Pakistan had to resettle millions of refugees while India withheld its rightful share of assets, hoping the fledgling state would collapse.

This sense of insecurity against a larger, more powerful neighbour became the central driver of Pakistan's foreign policy, influencing ties with major powers and shaping its approach to regional states like Afghanistan and Iran. While initially aiming for an independent course, Pakistan joined the U.S.-led Western bloc by the mid-1950s, primarily to counter India's hegemonic ambitions. Entry into SEATO in 1954 was part of a broader effort to build military and economic strength.

India's 1974 nuclear test sharply escalated regional security concerns. For a country that had lost its eastern wing only three years earlier, facing a nuclear-armed adversary posed a grave strategic dilemma. Disillusioned by Washington's inability to meet its security needs, Pakistan recognised that reliance on alliances was insufficient. Given the conventional military imbalance, it turned to nuclear deterrence as the primary means of ensuring credible defence. Despite intense U.S. pressure and sanctions through the 1980s and 1990s, Pakistan's leadership persisted. In May 1998, following India's second round of nuclear detonations, Pakistan conducted its own tests-becoming the first Muslim-majority nation with nuclear capability and cementing deterrence as a cornerstone of its security policy.

The regional landscape remains tense, with India's military modernisation, nuclear build-up, and aggressive posture repeatedly triggering crises. The revocation of Kashmir's special status, coupled with extremist ideologies such as Akhand Bharat and Hindutva, has further undermined prospects for peace. India's growing defence partnerships with the U.S., France, Russia, and Israel-alongside exemptions on nuclear matters-add complexity to South Asia's security equation.

While Pakistan has protected its interests through diplomacy and credible deterrence, new challenges demand a balanced approach. Avoiding bloc politics while maintaining constructive ties with both Washington and Beijing is essential. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship Belt and Road Initiative project, anchors Beijing as a strategic partner in Pakistan's geo-economic ambitions. Re-engaging the U.S. on a mutually beneficial basis is equally important, given its role as Pakistan's largest export market, a source of investment, and a global power capable of influencing regional stability.

Finally, effective engagement with the Taliban government in Kabul remains critical for counterterrorism, border security, and trade expansion. Sustained diplomacy—regionally and globally—will be key to navigating an increasingly complex strategic environment while safeguarding Pakistan's sovereignty and development goals.

—Sher Ali Kakar is working as Associate Director Research at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), at BUITEMS, Quetta. He can be reached at:

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