FROM POPULATION BOOM TO BREAKING POINT

Population is more than a simple count of people; it reflects the direction in which a country is moving, the pressures it faces and the opportunities it can either seize or lose.

In Pakistan, population growth has become one of the most significant concerns, influencing economic progress, social development and environmental stability.

Pakistan is now among the most populous countries in the world, with a population exceeding 240 million and continuing to rise. At the time of independence, the population was around 32 million and within just a few generations, it has increased several times over. This growth has not been uniform; it has accelerated during certain periods, largely due to improvements in healthcare, reductions in mortality rates and consistently high birth rates.

One of the key reasons behind this rapid growth is the relatively high fertility rate. Although there has been a gradual decline over the years, the average number of children per woman remains above the level required for population stability. As a result, even when families begin to have fewer children, the population continues to expand because a large number of young people are entering their reproductive years. This process, often described as population momentum, ensures continued growth for decades.

Urbanisation is closely linked to population growth. Cities across Pakistan are expanding rapidly as people move from rural areas in search of better opportunities, education and healthcare. Major cities have grown into vast urban centres, often without adequate planning to support the rising population. This has resulted in overcrowded housing, informal settlements, traffic congestion and increasing pressure on basic services such as water, electricity and sanitation.

While cities offer opportunities for advancement, they also reveal deep inequalities. Many urban residents live in difficult conditions, lacking access to clean water, proper sanitation and reliable public services. At the same time, rural areas continue to face their own challenges, including limited access to education, healthcare and economic opportunities. These disparities encourage further migration to cities, placing even greater strain on urban infrastructure.

Challenges faced by population surge

The economic effects of rapid population growth are complex and mixed. On the one hand, a large population provides a broad labour force that can contribute to economic activity. If properly educated and employed, this workforce can support industrial growth, improve productivity and increase national income. This potential is often described as the demographic dividend, a period during which a country can benefit from having a large working-age population.

On the other hand, these benefits are not automatic. Pakistan faces serious challenges in creating enough jobs to meet the needs of its growing labour force. Each year, a large number of young people enter the job market, but employment opportunities do not increase at the same rate. This leads to unemployment and underemployment, particularly among young people. Without stable incomes, many individuals struggle to support themselves and their families, reinforcing cycles of poverty.

Education and

healthcare for girls

Education is one of the most important sectors affected by population growth. Although progress has been made in increasing school enrolment, Pakistan still has the world’s second-highest number of out-of-school children. According to the Girls’ Education Statistics and Trends Report 2023-24, released in February 2026, approximately 26.2 million children aged 5–16 are not attending school. This represents around 35-39 per cent of the country’s total school-age population.

Rapid population growth makes it difficult to build enough schools, train sufficient teachers and maintain educational standards. The situation is especially concerning for girls, who often face barriers such as cultural expectations, poverty and early marriage.

Improving education, particularly for girls, is widely recognised as one of the most effective ways to address population-related challenges. Educated women tend to have smaller families, better health outcomes and greater participation in the economy. They are also more likely to ensure that their children receive an education, creating a positive cycle that benefits future generations.

Healthcare is another sector deeply influenced by population growth. Access to quality healthcare remains uneven, especially in rural areas. Maternal and child health continue to be major concerns, as many women lack proper medical care during pregnancy and childbirth. Infant and child mortality rates also remain higher than desired.

Environmental issues

Environmental concerns are becoming increasingly serious as the population grows. Natural resources, especially water, are under significant strain. Pakistan is already facing water scarcity and the situation is likely to worsen as demand continues to increase. Per capita water availability has declined sharply, creating challenges for agriculture, industry and daily life.

Agricultural land is also under pressure. As cities expand, more land is being used for housing and infrastructure, leaving less available for farming. This can reduce food production and increase dependence on imports, raising concerns about food security. At the same time, environmental issues such as air pollution, waste management and deforestation are becoming more pronounced. Large cities often struggle with poor air quality due to vehicle emissions and industrial activity, while waste disposal systems are frequently overwhelmed.

Similarly, climate change adds further challenges to this situation. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves. A growing population means that more people are exposed to these risks, making disaster management more difficult.

Addressing the social and economic impacts of population

Government policies have recognised the importance of addressing population challenges, but effective implementation remains difficult. Strong coordination among different levels of government, along with long-term investment in key sectors, is essential. Policies must focus not only on short-term solutions but also on addressing the underlying causes of population growth.

Public awareness is equally important. Many people are not fully aware of how population growth affects their daily lives and the country’s future. Educational campaigns can help shape attitudes, promote responsible parenthood and encourage the use of family planning services. Community leaders, teachers and healthcare workers all play important roles in spreading awareness and encouraging positive change.

Technology and data are becoming increasingly important in addressing population issues. Accurate data enables policymakers to identify areas of need and plan more effectively. Digital systems can improve service delivery, making services more accessible and efficient for the public.

Family planning

Social attitudes and traditions also influence population trends. In many communities, larger families are preferred due to economic uncertainty and the belief that children provide support in old age. In areas where formal social security systems are weak, this belief becomes even stronger. Addressing population growth, therefore, requires not only policies but also a gradual change in social understanding.

Family planning services play an important role in managing population growth. Contraceptive use in family planning allows couples to determine the number and spacing of their children, thereby preventing unwanted pregnancies. By utilising various birth control methods, families can plan pregnancies and reduce health risks associated with adolescent or closely spaced births.

However, access to family planning services is not consistent across the country. Many families lack reliable information or affordable options, while cultural and social factors sometimes discourage the use of contraception. Increasing awareness and improving access to family planning can help families make informed decisions about the number of children they have and pursue greater educational and economic opportunities.

Voices that matter

The voices of experts have long highlighted the importance of addressing population issues with care and commitment. Dr Nafis Sadik, a globally respected figure in the field of population and development, once observed, “Investing in women’s health and education is the most effective way to stabilise population and improve the quality of life for families.” This statement reflects a widely accepted understanding that population policies must focus on people, especially women, rather than simply on numbers. Her words remain highly relevant for Pakistan today. When women are given access to education and healthcare and when they are included in economic and social life, the effects are far-reaching. Families become healthier, children receive better care and communities become more resilient. This approach creates a foundation for sustainable development that goes beyond population control.

International cooperation can also provide valuable support. Learning from the experiences of other countries and working with global organisations can help Pakistan develop effective strategies. Financial assistance, research and technical expertise can strengthen national efforts.

Youngest nation in the world

Pakistan’s population has a distinctive age structure. A large proportion of people are under the age of 25, making the country one of the youngest populations in the world. This youthful population can be a powerful engine of economic growth if provided with proper education, skills and employment opportunities. However, if these young individuals are not engaged in productive activities, this advantage can turn into a serious challenge, leading to frustration, unemployment and social instability.

Youth engagement is also needed for long-term progress. With such a large young population, Pakistan has a unique opportunity to shape future attitudes and behaviours. Educational institutions can include population awareness in their programmes, helping young people understand the connection between population, resources and development. Encouraging open discussion allows them to make informed and responsible choices.

Looking ahead, Pakistan’s population is expected to continue growing for several decades. Even if fertility rates decline, the large number of young people will ensure continued growth. This makes it all the more important to act now with careful planning and a strong commitment.

Time to act now

The future of the country depends largely on how it manages this growth. If investments are made in education, healthcare and economic development, the population can become a source of strength. A skilled and productive workforce can drive innovation, improve competitiveness and raise living standards.

However, if these challenges are not addressed, the consequences could be serious. Rising unemployment, poverty and inequality can slow progress and create social tension. Environmental damage can threaten health and livelihoods, while weak public services can limit opportunities for future generations.

Population growth should not be seen as a problem to control, but as a reality to be managed wisely. The focus must remain on improving the quality of life for all citizens. Ensuring access to education, healthcare and economic opportunities allows individuals to reach their full potential and contribute to society.

Responsibility does not rest with the government alone. Individuals, families and communities all have a role to play. Making informed decisions, supporting education and adopting sustainable practices can collectively bring about meaningful change.

The story of Pakistan’s population is the story of its people. Each number represents a life filled with potential. With thoughtful planning, shared responsibility and steady effort, the country can move towards a future in which population growth supports development and enhances the well-being of all.

The writer is a seasoned journalist and a communications professional. He can be reached at [email protected]