When discussing Pakistan's foreign policy, analysts often focus on security alliances, religious affinities, or great-power politics. Yet one of the most influential drivers of Islamabad's diplomatic behaviour receives far less attention: energy insecurity.
FOREIGN POLICY
When discussing Pakistan's foreign policy, analysts often focus on security alliances, religious affinities, or great-power politics. Yet one of the most influential drivers of Islamabad's diplomatic behaviour receives far less attention: energy insecurity.
The recent Iran crisis has shown that Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped not only by strategic and political considerations but also by the imperative of safeguarding its energy supplies and protecting an already fragile economy.
In the contemporary world, politics, energy insecurity is not just an economic issue, but it is a strategic question for national stability and a dominant factor influencing foreign policy for both developing and developed states. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy security is the uninterrupted availability of energy at an affordable price. For energy-importing countries like Pakistan, fluctuations in world energy markets and prices lead to economic instability, influence diplomatic choices, and constrain their strategic choices. And the Iran crisis very clearly demonstrated how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East directly affected Pakistan's foreign policy calculations, compelling Islamabad to balance competing regional interests while safeguarding its own energy needs.
Despite possessing domestic energy resources, Pakistan’s energy structure reflects significant dependence on external energy supplies, with the Gulf region serving as its principal source of energy imports. During fiscal year 2025, Pakistan imported 12.53 million metric tons of petroleum products worth $8.4 billion. Overall, Pakistan depends on imports for 70-80 per cent of its oil and 100 per cent of its LNG from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz, the main route for Pakistan's oil and LNG imports, which carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day and 20 per cent of global LNG trade, making it a critical chokepoint for Pakistan's energy security.
Consequently, this heavy dependence leaves Pakistan vulnerable to external shocks originating from the Gulf region, with direct implications for Pakistan's economic stability, which is already fragile, widening fiscal deficits, increasing inflationary pressures, national security and independent foreign policy decisions. The gravity of this vulnerability is evident in the current regional conflict, which Bloomberg and the International Energy Agency have termed the current oil supply disruption as the largest in the history of the oil market, as the war has hit 7.5 per cent of global output and an even bigger swath of exports.
The escalation of tensions between Iran and the Gulf states placed Pakistan in a complex diplomatic position. On the one hand, Pakistan maintains religious affinity and security cooperation with Gulf monarchies, which host millions of Pakistani expatriate workers and provide substantial financial assistance. On the other hand, Pakistan shares a long border with Iran and seeks stable bilateral relations to enhance regional connectivity, border security, and energy cooperation.
Pakistan should broaden its energy partnerships and reduce excessive dependence on a limited group of suppliers, expanding domestic energy production, strengthening strategic reserves and accelerating renewable energy development
For Pakistan, energy security is no more just an academic assumption but an officially recognized policy priority, as reflected in different documents such as Pakistan Vision 2025, National Security Policy 2022–2026 and National Electricity Plan 2023–2027. Dependence on energy imports via the Strait of Hormuz limits foreign policy options, as regional instability poses significant risks to energy security and economic stability, requiring leadership to not only prioritize geopolitical interests but also assess the risks linked to supply interruptions and increasing energy costs.
Viewed through this lens, Pakistan's diplomacy during the Iran–Gulf crisis appears less like indecision and more like a strategy of risk management. Pakistan's calls for mediation and de-escalation are not simple conventional pledges to peace; instead, they reflect a pragmatic diplomatic effort to protect national economic and energy security by reducing the risk of regional conflict that may jeopardize essential energy sources. In this way, national economic interests were safeguarded through diplomacy.
Pakistan's response reflects a broader pattern observed in energy-dependent states. Rather than allowing ideological preferences or religious affiliations to dictate foreign policy, Islamabad adopted a pragmatic risk-management strategy aimed at safeguarding national economic interests and ensuring uninterrupted energy supplies. The experience of New Delhi and Japan also showed that, despite intense pressure from the West, both prioritised their national interests ahead of ideological alignment and promoted policy changes meant to safeguard national economic interests. In the first case, New Delhi continued to buy Russian oil during the Russia-Ukraine war as part of a pragmatic strategy. In a similar vein, Japan's reaction to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo serves as an example of how energy instability can impact and restrict foreign policy autonomy. Japan changed its diplomatic strategy toward Arab countries in order to guarantee access to energy resources after facing severe energy vulnerability.
This behaviour is consistent with the logic of economic security, where states prioritise stability and resilience in the face of external shocks. Moreover, it also demonstrates that, in addition to ideology, alliances or military considerations, another significant element influencing foreign policy action is the continuous access to energy supplies.
Pakistan’s measured diplomacy during the Iran–Gulf crisis shows that Pakistan has accepted the reality that any disruption in the Gulf region will ultimately increase its import bills, inflationary pressures and pose greater challenges for economic recovery. Therefore, Pakistan’s diplomatic neutrality becomes less a political preference than an economic necessity.
Pakistan needs a shift from reactive crisis management to preventive energy security. The most effective long-term solution is not simply diplomatic balancing but reducing structural dependence itself by drawing lessons from China's long-term approach to energy security. Pakistan should broaden its energy partnerships, reduce excessive dependence on a limited group of suppliers, expand domestic energy production, strengthen strategic reserves, and accelerate renewable energy development. Through these efforts, Pakistan can ensure that future regional crises have a limited impact on its foreign policy autonomy.
Energy insecurity is not the only factor shaping Pakistan's foreign policy, nor does it override the other traditional strategic considerations, such as the military. However, Pakistan's dependence on imported oil and LNG has increased the risks associated with regional instability. As a result, Pakistan preferred neutrality, diplomatic balancing and calls for de-escalation during the Iran conflict. Therefore, energy insecurity emerged as an important factor influencing Pakistan's foreign policy behaviour during the crisis.
The writer is an MPhil scholar at the National Defence University (NDU), specialising in security and strategic studies with a focus on AI, maritime security and Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
